Following on the same theme, here's an article by BBC on the geopolitical resonance of the Crimea. (The article has another picture of the cruiser Moskva).
The Crimean Republic is a semi-autonomous region at the southern end of the Ukraine which juts out into the Black Sea. It used to be part of the Russian SSR during the Soviet Union, until the mid-50s when Khrushchev granted its territory as a gift to the Ukrainian SSR.
The Ukrainian SSR's nominal ownership of the Crimea didn't make much difference during the Soviet era, but when the Ukraine became independent in 1991, it found itself with a strategically vital piece of Black Sea waterfront, with the biggest military port in the region. Since independence, the Ukraine has leased out a big part of the port, Sevastopol, to the Russian navy's Black Sea fleet.
The Ukraine also got ownership of a big 'Dnepr' missile defense radar on a spit of land jutting into the Black Sea just southwest of the military harbor at Sevastopol - one of only fifteen LPAR radars built across Soviet territory from the late 60s to late 80s to warn of American nuclear attack. (Some of the sites have been shut down since). Russia now pays Ukraine more than a million dollars a year for data from that radar and another at Mukachevo.
The population of the Crimea is mostly Russian rather than Ukrainian, and that, coupled with the Russian military presence and strong strategic value of the Crimea, have led some to speculate that Russia may try to reestablish some kind of closer control of the region. I think that's a distant long shot, and relations between Russia and Ukraine would have to get a lot worse than they ever have been, before I'd take the possibility seriously. But evidently people over at BBC are thinking about it...
Posted by case at August 27, 2008 10:19 PMI don't know. I think the relations are pretty bad as they are, and that Ukraine is worried enough, which is also illustrated by the the country being among the leaders that flew to Georgia in moral support of Saakashvili.
If the people living in Crimea are Russians and not Ukrainians, it seems to follow the Russinas' logic that then it belongs under the wings of Putin - like South Ossetia and Abkhasia now do de facto.
So what will NATO do about that risk? Shall we speed up the NATO membership negotiations with Ukraine to stop Russia's hunger for re-expansion? Or shall we let Russia go ahead and take what they want? The EU countries which are dependent on gas and oil from Russia, primarily France, Germany and Poland will be against offering NATO membership to Ukraine, unfortunately, so what do we do?
I think Ukraine has a good reason to worry about Russia's nexdt move.