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Danish Election Insomnia Shocker!

I was up late last night watching the Danish national election come in. The results were historic, by Danish standards, but the end result leaves the ruling coalition still in power, comparatively little change in the political balance, and most likely no substantial changes in either foreign or domestic policy.

But before I get into it, I need to explain Denmark's bizarre political taxonomy. There are ten "serious" political parties, but I'll just explain the major ones. The biggest party, at 29 percent of the vote (before this election) is called Venstre, which in Danish means "Left." They are also known as the "Liberal" party, but the thing to remember is that despite the name, they are actually politically center-right!

Then there is the Konservativ (Conservative) party, with 10 percent of the vote. They are generally more fiscally conservative but socially liberal than Venstre. The Venstre and Konservativ parties are sharing power right now in Denmark's ruling coalition.

The policies of the coalition, with one big exception that I'll get to in a minute, would probably be politically closest to the Clinton administration. Well, maybe a bit to the right of Clinton and many shades to the left of Bush, but they are considered to be the farthest right governing coalition Denmark has had in a long time. They stand for the privatizing of many state assets and utilities, and for trying to cap social spending. Their most powerful fiscal policy though is the "skattestop" an arbitrary end to the rising of taxes across the economy, and a rollback of taxes in certain areas. They may be on to something good here… the top income tax rate--63 percent!--kicks in at below the median income in Denmark. That means that more people are paying the top tax rate than not, which seems to defeat the purpose of a progressive tax system.

The main party on the left is the Social Democrats at 26 percent. They were the strongest party in Denmark since the 1920s, but are now in decline (Social Democrats used to run most countries in Western Europe in the 1990s but now seem to be on the run everywhere). Politically, the Social Democrats are substantially to the left any government that has ever been voted into office in the US, even FDR. They were the architects of the Danish society as it has existed for the last half-century. Very high taxes, free education, free medical care, high social spending, and virtually no poverty, homelessness or violent crime. The Social Democrats have a lot to be proud of.

The next biggest party on the left is the Radikale Venstre (Radical Left) at 9 percent, which in typical Danish fashion is actually more of a center-left party further to the right than the Social Democrats. And on the far left are the Socialistisk Folkeparti (Socialist People's Party) at 6 percent and Enhedslisten, a "Red-Green" union of the former Communist party and environment-friendly Green party, at 3 percent.

I've left out a couple of smaller parties, but the joker in this deck, and the reason for the big exception in Danish politics that I mentioned before, is the far right pack of xenophobes that call themselves the Dansk Folkeparti (Danish People's Party). These guys, disturbingly, got 13 percent of the vote in 2001 on a strictly anti-immigrant ticket, and became Denmark's third largest political party overnight. The party's public website exclaims proudly that "Denmark is not, and never has been, a multicultural society." And once, on the floor of Parliament, Pia Kjaersgaard, the party leader, said she believed that "Islam is a terrorist religion." This is who we're dealing with.

Now here's the rub... if you do the math, you can see that the representation of the ruling Liberal-Conservative coalition adds up to only 39 percent. In 2001, they needed to get that extra 11 percent to make a majority from somewhere, so that they could vote through the national budget. Rather than compromising with the Social Democrats or Radical Left (as has been a tradition in Danish politics), they cut a deal with the devil--and got the votes they needed from the Danish People's Party.

In return, the coalition agreed to pass rules that make it exponentially more difficult for refugees or immigrants to live in Denmark. They succeeded. In the last four years, the number of new refugees and immigrants has plummeted. The rules are intended to keep out poor immigrants with few skills (and, some would say, dark skin). But because UN human rights laws make it illegal to target specific national, racial or religious groups, the rules also make it less attractive for highly trained people to live here.

Move to a country with some of the highest tax rates in the world AND a policy that intentionally makes it unpleasant for immigrants? Wow, where do I sign up?! (All I can say is that it's a good thing Cecilie is drop-dead gorgeous or I'd have some serious doubts about this place).

The Election

Of course, the election! How could I forget? So what did happen last night?

The headline news would be that the ruling coalition is the big winner. The Liberals lost 2 points but are still the largest political party in Denmark, and the Conservatives gained a little more than a point. So even though there was a net loss of seats in Parliament, the coalition government still has a comfortable position at the head of the government, and Anders Fogh Rasmussen will stay on as Prime Minister of Denmark for the next four years.

The Danish People's Party cashed in on a continuing anti-immigrant feeling in Denmark (which they have been doing everything they can to incite), and gained a little more than a point. Some of them are making noises to be included in the coalition now, but though the coalition is willing to jump into bed with them when they need to, they're not quite ready to disgrace themselves completely by asking them to move into their house.

The big losers were the Social Democrats, which suffered the worst defeat in 30 years and lost more than 3 points. Mogens Lykketoft, the current leader of the party and a fixture in Danish politics for decades, took responsibility for the defeat in a moving speech last night and resigned from the leadership. His parting line was, "Kennedy said once that victory has many fathers, but defeat is parentless. But it's not that way here. It is I that had the leadership. I did as well as I could, but the result is far from good enough. And that I give myself responsibility for." Classy goodbye speech from a politician with some dignity. (My apologies to Kennedy if I mistranslated his quote from Lykketoft's Danish).

But there was another winner last night, though the victory was subtle. Remember the charmingly-named Radical Left? They took the biggest gain in this election, at a full four points, to a little more than 9 percent now. That is only *just* short of the number they would need to put the coalition's share over the top, if the coalition would choose to cooperate with them instead of the Danish People's Party. There is a strong opinion that the coalition--especially the Conservatives--would drop Danish People's Party in a New York minute if only they were given the opportunity. It's a pity this election didn't present that opportunity.

And there is one final reason to be cheerful. The Radical Left and the Danish People's Party are vicious political enemies. Such a strong gain for the Radical Left could be read as a protest vote against Danish People's Party, from the majority of non-xenophobic Danes who are sick of having their country's formerly benevolent reputation destroyed and replaced by a reputation for harboring closet fascists.

This election was not as spectacular as many were hoping. But it was nowhere near as bad as it could have been, and the signs seem to be heading the right way. As Martin Luther King Jr. said, "I have no despair about the future."

Posted by case at February 9, 2005 11:13 PM